by University of Exeter
The arrival of new plant pests and diseases is likely to severely damage UK trees and woodlands in the coming decades, new research shows.
The ash dieback epidemic prompted the government to assess all pests and diseases that could potentially enter the UK and affect our trees and agricultural crops.
In the new study, University of Exeter scientists assessed the 636 tree pests and diseases to work out the invasion probability and likely effects on tree growth. The paper, published in the journal Plants People Planet, is entitled "Potential impacts of plant pests and diseases on trees and forests in the UK."
Based on recent rates of pest and disease arrival, they estimate that—by 2050—more than half of tree growth could be lost (compared to growth if no new pests and diseases arrived from now onwards).
Tackling pest and disease invasions is very difficult in a world of global trade and travel, but tight biocontrol would slow the process—and tree-planting policies can also boost resilience.
"The defense against uncertain risk is always diversity," said Professor Dan Bebber. "In the UK, we have relatively low tree diversity—both in terms of the number of tree species and the genetic diversity within each species.
"The ash dieback epidemic showed us how devastating a single tree disease can be, and how urgently we need to learn about these threats and protect our biodiversity."
Professor Bebber added, "As well as issues about biosecurity, our research raises social and cultural questions about what we think our woodlands should look like—for example, which species should we plant?
